Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
